All of the polling data put Coleman and Franken at neck and neck. This of course made me confident that Coleman would take the prize. My ace in the hole was supposed to be Barkley. Third party candidates are often listed under 'Other' for telephone polls, so I thought Barkley's representation would be slightly under represented, likely taking voters away from Franken.
Regardless of the validity of the reasoning, I was right. By just over 477 votes says CNN.com out of 2,860,193. If that looks tight, I wonder if it might be a record. That is 0.016%, and falls well within the half of a percent that demands a mandatory recount in Minnesota. No, I am not taking any victory laps about my fulfilled prophecy, and now I am less confident than before that Coleman will maintain his seat in the senate.
The race is important as it is part of a string of occurrences that could give the Democratic Party a filibuster-proof senate. The current count has the Dem's 4 seats away, while there are 4, including Coleman-Franken, that remain undecided from Tuesday's election.
There is also the Lieberman question. He is one of two independents that currently caucus with the Democrats. He campaigned for McCain and may switch loyalties in the senate.
Losing any one of these seats will keep the Democrats shy if a filibuster-proof majority.